Rookie Quarterbacks

If there's one thing the world needs, it is more analysis on rookie prospects by an average fan.

I've heard some recent buzz about teams possibly trading up to get one of the top 3, 4 rated quarterbacks in the upcoming draft.  Everyone knows that a quality starting QB is a must when it comes to winning in the NFL.  Often this causes teams to "reach" for the guy that they believe is their man.

Here's a list of the first QBs taken from 2000 on:

2000 - Chad Pennington.  I wouldn't classify this as a bust, but he didn't exactly lead teams to winning seasons year after year either.  (The * in this year is that Tom Brady was taken late in the 6th round, at 199 overall, obviously far outplaying any QB taken before him... see "The Brady 6" last week on ESPN).
2001 - Michael Vick.  Once again, a little bit of mixed results.  Has put up some impressive numbers, really set the league on fire when he first burst on the scene for Atlanta, but no Super Bowl appearances.
2002 - David Carr.  Houston was an expansion team, and this was supposed to be their franchise QB.  Most recently, he was in competition with another 1 overall pick, Alex Smith, and couldn't win the job.
2003 - Carson Palmer.  Heisman trophy winner, puts up impressive numbers.  Has had some impressive statistics, but no playoff wins.
2004 - Eli Manning.  This is an interesting scenario.  3 young QBs were affected by this.  Won Super Bowl in 2007 to everyone's surprise.  Has had his ups and downs, but can't argue with a championship.  This was the pick that was traded for Philip Rivers.  I don't think San Diego has a problem with that trade at all.  Rivers has put up huge numbers, with and without Tomlinson, with and without Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates.  He is legit, but once again, has not made the big game.  The 3rd QB indirectly involved here is Drew Brees.  San Diego drafted him to be their QB but didn't see the progress in him to give him a big second contract so they drafted Rivers.  Of course, Brees then had a big season, but was still allowed to pursue free agency.  He signed with New Orleans, and won a Super Bowl in January of 2010.
2005 - Alex Smith.  Do I need to really say anything?  The obvious storyline here is that Aaron Rodgers was the second QB taken at 24 by the Green Bay Packers.  After some early struggles and being humbled as a young player backing up an all time great in Brett Favre, Rodgers led the Packers to a Super Bowl in 2011 while the 49ers fired their 2nd coach in 3 years and are still searching for a franchise QB.
2006 - Vince Young.  Well, another player who is on his way out by the team that drafted him.  He offers some glimpses of ability and excitement, but does not have the ability and understanding to run NFL offenses.
2007 - JaMarcus Russell.  Purple Drank (aka sizzurup).
2008 - Matt Ryan.  Off to an extraordinary start as a starting NFL QB.  Led team to playoffs in first & third years, and 3 straight winning seasons for this first time in franchise history.  No playoff wins, but let's not judge this early.  Bona fide QB stud.
2009 - Matthew Stafford.  Set to be the Lions franchise QB of the future.  Has dealt with injury troubles in his first couple years, but could be the leader of a solid offense and improving team in the next couple years.
2010 - Sam Bradford.  The Rams were convinced of Bradford's ability in the months leading up to last year's draft and went with him at #1 over dominant defense tackle Ndamokong Suh.  He led the Rams to a surprising 2nd place finish in the NFC West and put up decent numbers for a rookie considering the injury problems facing the team.  Bright future ahead.

2011 appears to be the year Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert get the nod as the top QB prospect.  In my opinion teams are forcing themselves to be interested in mediocre prospects because that is all that is available at this time.  As you can see, drafting a QB # 1 is a risky prospect, as is any other position.  Due to the prominence and money that goes to a #1 QB pick the scenario is magnified.  This year the focus is even greater due to the labor situation and the fact that teams are unable to pick up a free agent QB by the time the draft rolls around (unless a miracle deal is struck in the next week and a half).

By my observation there is no quarterback that deserves to be drafted in the top 10 in this month's draft.  Cam Newton led a powerhouse SEC team to an BCS Championship and won the Heisman Trophy.  The problem is that he did not play in a "pro style offense" and has had some mechanic/accuracy issues.  Gabbert played for Missouri, who also do not run a "pro style offense."  He is also fairly mobile, and has the physical characteristics that NFL personnel men love.  Once again, I do not see a player who can barely lead a team to a Big 12 Division Championship as a big time NFL prospect.  The other players receiving 1st round consideration are Jake Locker (Washington), Christian Ponder (FSU), Colin Kaepernick (Nevada), and Andy Dalton (TCU).

I'm not saying that one or more of these players can't become legitimate NFL quarterbacks.  My point is that every year teams convince themselves to draft players higher than they should to fill a need, or get a player that has a buzz and they have convinced themselves that they have to have.  This sets up a domino effect, where every other quarterback needy team feels they need to draft the next best player, and so on.

To me it just seems that letting the draft play out as it may, and grabbing the best QB available on your board is a much better strategy than reaching for the flavor of the week.  NFL scouting and analysis is an inexact science, as much as Mel Kiper & Todd McShay & ESPN would like to believe otherwise, they have no clue who is going to be the next star/bust, etc.

Quarterbacks

I read a blurb on Profootballtalk about how Donovan McNabb is interested in playing for the Minnesota Vikings, and the feeling may be mutual.  Signing qbs at the end of their careers has been the Vikings specialty for the past 15 or so years.  In the mid 90s Warren Moon led some good Viking teams.  He was followed by a player they actually drafted, Brad Johnson, for a couple years, but that soon gave way to Randall Cunningham who led one of the great offensive teams of all time, the 1998 Vikings.  That team is considered one of the best to never win the Super Bowl, losing the NFC Championship at home after going 15-1 during the regular season. The next season didn't start off as hot for him, so he was replaced by Jeff George.  Then comes the big exception in the Vikings recent history - Daunte Culpepper.  He was drafted in the 1st Round by Minnesota and burst on the scene in 2000, putting up huge numbers throwing and running, leading the Vikings once again to the NFC championship game where they got destroyed by the Giants.  This was followed up by a couple disappointing, injury ridden seasons, but he came back for a historic personal year in 2004, however the team struggled.  The injury problems continued the next year, and so he was replaced by, yes, that's right, Brad Johnson.  After that came the Tarvaris Jackson experiment, and feeling that wasn't the answer they famously turned to Favre, who again led the Vikings to the NFC championship, where they once again lost in agonizing fashion.  Now it seems the reins may be turned over to their younger guys, Joe Webb or Tarvaris Jackson, but most likely they will make a desperate play for McNabb.

The reason I elaborated on that situation so much is because I feel it is kind of an example of how many teams can struggle for years through quarterback and coaching changes, having good seasons mixed in with terrible ones, trying to find an solution to finally get them through to the Super Bowl.

If you look at the NFL Champions from this decade you will mostly find teams that drafted and developed their own quarterbacks under a consistent system.  Green Bay, Indianapolis, New England (3 times), Pittsburgh (twice), all won with a quarterback they drafted.  St Louis, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans won with quarterbacks that they did not draft.  Kurt Warner was obviously an unbelievable story, something that I don't think any thinks will be replicated any time soon.  New Orleans had Drew Brees, who was drafted by San Diego, had a few ok seasons, then in his contract year played excellent.  However, the Chargers chose their rookie, Philip Rivers over Brees, and Drew went to the Saints with Sean Payton and became a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback.  Baltimore and Tampa Bay went by the theory that with an outstanding defense and veteran "caretaker" at quarterback it is possible to win a Super Bowl.

I think that the Tampa & Baltimore situations have made a lot of people believe that formula for success is something that can be replicated.  Looking back, it sure seems like an anomaly, especially when you look at how historically great those defenses were.

Recently we have seen teams like Arizona, and Carolina make exciting runs to the Super Bowl with qbs signed in free agency, but they both came up short, losing at the end of the game in memorable fashion.  Also, teams have made runs to the conference championship game like the 09 Vikings, 05 Broncos and Panthers, but it just seems that recent history favors teams that are cohesive and have been together for years.  I think that this is evident in the recent versions of the New England Patriots.  They still have their super star and MVP QB, but don't have the caliber of defense that they did in the early 00s, with mostly young players, and little leadership and playmaking ability.

I guess, basically what this all comes down to, is there is no formula for winning a Super Bowl, but if there is, it definitely seems to be assembling a team of players drafted in your own system, with a quarterback that your staff has developed, and a few playmakers on defense.  Seems so easy, right?  Which is probably why every year people reach for quarterback prospects hoping that they have found their future.  I think this will lead me to write a post this week about the rookie quarterback prospects this year.