Quarterbacks

I read a blurb on Profootballtalk about how Donovan McNabb is interested in playing for the Minnesota Vikings, and the feeling may be mutual.  Signing qbs at the end of their careers has been the Vikings specialty for the past 15 or so years.  In the mid 90s Warren Moon led some good Viking teams.  He was followed by a player they actually drafted, Brad Johnson, for a couple years, but that soon gave way to Randall Cunningham who led one of the great offensive teams of all time, the 1998 Vikings.  That team is considered one of the best to never win the Super Bowl, losing the NFC Championship at home after going 15-1 during the regular season. The next season didn't start off as hot for him, so he was replaced by Jeff George.  Then comes the big exception in the Vikings recent history - Daunte Culpepper.  He was drafted in the 1st Round by Minnesota and burst on the scene in 2000, putting up huge numbers throwing and running, leading the Vikings once again to the NFC championship game where they got destroyed by the Giants.  This was followed up by a couple disappointing, injury ridden seasons, but he came back for a historic personal year in 2004, however the team struggled.  The injury problems continued the next year, and so he was replaced by, yes, that's right, Brad Johnson.  After that came the Tarvaris Jackson experiment, and feeling that wasn't the answer they famously turned to Favre, who again led the Vikings to the NFC championship, where they once again lost in agonizing fashion.  Now it seems the reins may be turned over to their younger guys, Joe Webb or Tarvaris Jackson, but most likely they will make a desperate play for McNabb.

The reason I elaborated on that situation so much is because I feel it is kind of an example of how many teams can struggle for years through quarterback and coaching changes, having good seasons mixed in with terrible ones, trying to find an solution to finally get them through to the Super Bowl.

If you look at the NFL Champions from this decade you will mostly find teams that drafted and developed their own quarterbacks under a consistent system.  Green Bay, Indianapolis, New England (3 times), Pittsburgh (twice), all won with a quarterback they drafted.  St Louis, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans won with quarterbacks that they did not draft.  Kurt Warner was obviously an unbelievable story, something that I don't think any thinks will be replicated any time soon.  New Orleans had Drew Brees, who was drafted by San Diego, had a few ok seasons, then in his contract year played excellent.  However, the Chargers chose their rookie, Philip Rivers over Brees, and Drew went to the Saints with Sean Payton and became a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback.  Baltimore and Tampa Bay went by the theory that with an outstanding defense and veteran "caretaker" at quarterback it is possible to win a Super Bowl.

I think that the Tampa & Baltimore situations have made a lot of people believe that formula for success is something that can be replicated.  Looking back, it sure seems like an anomaly, especially when you look at how historically great those defenses were.

Recently we have seen teams like Arizona, and Carolina make exciting runs to the Super Bowl with qbs signed in free agency, but they both came up short, losing at the end of the game in memorable fashion.  Also, teams have made runs to the conference championship game like the 09 Vikings, 05 Broncos and Panthers, but it just seems that recent history favors teams that are cohesive and have been together for years.  I think that this is evident in the recent versions of the New England Patriots.  They still have their super star and MVP QB, but don't have the caliber of defense that they did in the early 00s, with mostly young players, and little leadership and playmaking ability.

I guess, basically what this all comes down to, is there is no formula for winning a Super Bowl, but if there is, it definitely seems to be assembling a team of players drafted in your own system, with a quarterback that your staff has developed, and a few playmakers on defense.  Seems so easy, right?  Which is probably why every year people reach for quarterback prospects hoping that they have found their future.  I think this will lead me to write a post this week about the rookie quarterback prospects this year.