Rookie Quarterbacks

If there's one thing the world needs, it is more analysis on rookie prospects by an average fan.

I've heard some recent buzz about teams possibly trading up to get one of the top 3, 4 rated quarterbacks in the upcoming draft.  Everyone knows that a quality starting QB is a must when it comes to winning in the NFL.  Often this causes teams to "reach" for the guy that they believe is their man.

Here's a list of the first QBs taken from 2000 on:

2000 - Chad Pennington.  I wouldn't classify this as a bust, but he didn't exactly lead teams to winning seasons year after year either.  (The * in this year is that Tom Brady was taken late in the 6th round, at 199 overall, obviously far outplaying any QB taken before him... see "The Brady 6" last week on ESPN).
2001 - Michael Vick.  Once again, a little bit of mixed results.  Has put up some impressive numbers, really set the league on fire when he first burst on the scene for Atlanta, but no Super Bowl appearances.
2002 - David Carr.  Houston was an expansion team, and this was supposed to be their franchise QB.  Most recently, he was in competition with another 1 overall pick, Alex Smith, and couldn't win the job.
2003 - Carson Palmer.  Heisman trophy winner, puts up impressive numbers.  Has had some impressive statistics, but no playoff wins.
2004 - Eli Manning.  This is an interesting scenario.  3 young QBs were affected by this.  Won Super Bowl in 2007 to everyone's surprise.  Has had his ups and downs, but can't argue with a championship.  This was the pick that was traded for Philip Rivers.  I don't think San Diego has a problem with that trade at all.  Rivers has put up huge numbers, with and without Tomlinson, with and without Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates.  He is legit, but once again, has not made the big game.  The 3rd QB indirectly involved here is Drew Brees.  San Diego drafted him to be their QB but didn't see the progress in him to give him a big second contract so they drafted Rivers.  Of course, Brees then had a big season, but was still allowed to pursue free agency.  He signed with New Orleans, and won a Super Bowl in January of 2010.
2005 - Alex Smith.  Do I need to really say anything?  The obvious storyline here is that Aaron Rodgers was the second QB taken at 24 by the Green Bay Packers.  After some early struggles and being humbled as a young player backing up an all time great in Brett Favre, Rodgers led the Packers to a Super Bowl in 2011 while the 49ers fired their 2nd coach in 3 years and are still searching for a franchise QB.
2006 - Vince Young.  Well, another player who is on his way out by the team that drafted him.  He offers some glimpses of ability and excitement, but does not have the ability and understanding to run NFL offenses.
2007 - JaMarcus Russell.  Purple Drank (aka sizzurup).
2008 - Matt Ryan.  Off to an extraordinary start as a starting NFL QB.  Led team to playoffs in first & third years, and 3 straight winning seasons for this first time in franchise history.  No playoff wins, but let's not judge this early.  Bona fide QB stud.
2009 - Matthew Stafford.  Set to be the Lions franchise QB of the future.  Has dealt with injury troubles in his first couple years, but could be the leader of a solid offense and improving team in the next couple years.
2010 - Sam Bradford.  The Rams were convinced of Bradford's ability in the months leading up to last year's draft and went with him at #1 over dominant defense tackle Ndamokong Suh.  He led the Rams to a surprising 2nd place finish in the NFC West and put up decent numbers for a rookie considering the injury problems facing the team.  Bright future ahead.

2011 appears to be the year Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert get the nod as the top QB prospect.  In my opinion teams are forcing themselves to be interested in mediocre prospects because that is all that is available at this time.  As you can see, drafting a QB # 1 is a risky prospect, as is any other position.  Due to the prominence and money that goes to a #1 QB pick the scenario is magnified.  This year the focus is even greater due to the labor situation and the fact that teams are unable to pick up a free agent QB by the time the draft rolls around (unless a miracle deal is struck in the next week and a half).

By my observation there is no quarterback that deserves to be drafted in the top 10 in this month's draft.  Cam Newton led a powerhouse SEC team to an BCS Championship and won the Heisman Trophy.  The problem is that he did not play in a "pro style offense" and has had some mechanic/accuracy issues.  Gabbert played for Missouri, who also do not run a "pro style offense."  He is also fairly mobile, and has the physical characteristics that NFL personnel men love.  Once again, I do not see a player who can barely lead a team to a Big 12 Division Championship as a big time NFL prospect.  The other players receiving 1st round consideration are Jake Locker (Washington), Christian Ponder (FSU), Colin Kaepernick (Nevada), and Andy Dalton (TCU).

I'm not saying that one or more of these players can't become legitimate NFL quarterbacks.  My point is that every year teams convince themselves to draft players higher than they should to fill a need, or get a player that has a buzz and they have convinced themselves that they have to have.  This sets up a domino effect, where every other quarterback needy team feels they need to draft the next best player, and so on.

To me it just seems that letting the draft play out as it may, and grabbing the best QB available on your board is a much better strategy than reaching for the flavor of the week.  NFL scouting and analysis is an inexact science, as much as Mel Kiper & Todd McShay & ESPN would like to believe otherwise, they have no clue who is going to be the next star/bust, etc.