Two Days

The excitement is brewing for Super Bowl XLV in snowy & cold... Dallas?  Fortunately for the 100,000 fans at the game it will be inside.  I figured I should throw one more post out there before Sunday, because if Green Bay loses I probably won't watch ESPN or read SI for a month.

I expect a good game, with the defenses making big plays throughout the game, but I definitely see a few big plays out of the passing game as well.  I don't think it will be a 17-14 type game as some people are predicting, but I doubt we're looking at 38-35 either.  Both teams have matchup advantages in different areas.

One thing I feel good about as a Packer fan is how the team seems to have embraced the experience and challenge that is playing for the world championship.  I watch the interviews of Jennings, Driver, Rodgers, McCarthy, etc. and it seems to me that they are ready to go.  One thing I can definitely tell you about Rodgers is that he will be prepared for this game.  Not to say he will play perfect, but he will be ready for what the Steelers bring.

I'm not going to make a prediction except for this: Greg Jennings will have a monster game.  For some reason I have a feeling he will have 5-7 receptions for 120+ yds and a TD in a big part of the game.  He is a stud receiver  but not one of these loudmouth jerks so he doesn't really get the recognition of a TO, Ochocinco, Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall, etc.

Go Pack.

Breakdown

I don't do this type of thing often (of course, I don't blog that often either) because there are so many shows, websites, etc. now devoted to analysis of football that are run by people much more qualified than I am.  I feel that my place is more of the fan's view; a regular guy's take on things that others might not notice.  However, being that the Packers are my team, and there are going to be 1000 other idiots putting in their 2 cents, what's one more, right?

I am going to focus on a few main things here:

Packers offense vs. Steelers defense.
Green Bay & Pittsburgh are a very equal matchup here.  The Packers have a dynamic, playmaking offense.  The Steelers have a dynamic, playmaking offense.  I expect to see the Packers put a couple drives together, and probably one or two, big, game changing plays.  The strength of the Steelers defense is stopping the run.  The weakness of the Packers offense is running.  Green Bay will try to run the ball to keep Pittsburgh honest.  But Mike McCarthy & Aaron Rodgers will throw.  A lot.  And they will be able to.  Pittsburgh is 12th against the Pass in the NFL.  Green Bay is 5th at passing offense, and at this point I don't think there is anyone better.  Aaron Rodgers will be able to make a few plays against a weak Steelers secondary.

Steelers offense vs. Packers defense.
The Steelers are middle of the road on offense (14th), but they do have a Super Bowl winning QB who has the 2nd best winning playoff % of all time.  Green Bay is a little susceptible to the run, and Pittsburgh has as a solid RB in Rashard Mendenhall.  The thing that makes Roethlisberger & the Steelers tough to beat offensively is Pittsburgh's big play ability downfield, and Big Ben's ability to extend plays with his size & mobility to gain first downs when other players could not.

Verdict.
I am not in the habit of making predictions, but I will say that I feel that the Packers have the edge in both areas I mentioned.  That doesn't mean they will win, or are even the better team.  Intangibles and experience, and the clutch performance factor would probably favor Pittsburgh.  Also, the two week layoff and some of the off the field controversies the Packers have experienced in the off week could be a distraction.

However, from a basic football X & Os standpoint I believe that Green Bay is better than Pittsburgh.  Their offense is better than Pittsburgh's defense, and their defense is better than Pittsburgh's offense.  Whether that will lead to a victory will be decided Feb. 6th in Dallas.